数字经济能推动旅游业高质量发展吗?基于PSTR模型的实证分析

doi:10.12054/lydk.bisu.254

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

数字经济是实现经济高质量发展的重要驱动力，透视其赋能旅游业高质量发展的内在规律具有重要意义。本文基于数字经济赋能理论，构建数字经济与旅游业高质量发展关系的动态分析框架，并通过省级面板数据建立PSTR模型，探究数字经济对旅游业高质量发展的赋能效应及作用机制。结果表明：（1）数字经济对旅游业高质量发展的赋能效应存在动态非线性特征，通过了多种方式的稳健性检验。（2）数字经济存在通过旅游产业效率和产业结构渠道赋能旅游业高质量发展的传导效应。（3）数字经济对旅游业高质量发展的赋能效应具有地区异质性，在经济发展水平较高区域赋能效应较弱。本研究丰富了数字经济赋能理论，为数字时代旅游业高质量发展提供了政策建议。

关键词: 数字经济; 旅游业高质量发展; 数字赋能; PSTR模型

Abstract:

The digital economy has increasingly become an important driving force of high-quality development, and understanding the internal laws that empower high-quality development in the tourism industry is of great significance. Based on the empowerment theory of the digital economy, this study constructed a dynamic analytical framework for the relationship between digital economy and high-quality tourism development and established a PSTR model using provincial panel data to explore the enabling effect and mechanism of the digital economy on the high-quality development of tourism. The results show that (1) the empowering effect of the digital economy on high-quality tourism development has dynamic nonlinear characteristics and has passed the robustness test of various methods. (2) The digital economy has the transmission effect of empowering high-quality tourism development through the efficiency and structure of the tourism industry. (3) The enabling effect of the digital economy on high-quality tourism development is regionally heterogeneous, and the empowerment effect is weaker in regions with higher economic development levels. This study enriches the theory of digital economy empowerment, providing policy suggestions for high-quality tourism development in the digital era.

Keywords: digital economy; high-quality tourism development; digital empowerment; PSTR model

中图分类号:

李明龙, 孙晓洋, 郭海荣, 赵梦阳. 数字经济能推动旅游业高质量发展吗?基于PSTR模型的实证分析[J]. 旅游导刊, 2024, 8(5): 1-26.

LI Minglong, SUN Xiaoyang, GUO Hairong, ZHAO Mengyang. Can the Digital Economy Promote High-Quality Tourism Development? Empirical Evidence Based on the PSTR Model[J]. Tourism and Hospitality Prospects, 2024, 8(5): 1-26.

图/表 11

图1 理论分析

Fig. 1 Theoretical analysis

表1 旅游业高质量发展评价指标体系

Tab. 1 High-quality tourism development index system

目标层 Goal layer	维度层 Dimension layer	因子层 Factor layer	指标层 Indicator layer
旅游业高质量发展High-quality tourism development	创新发展	投资效率	旅游总收入/全社会固定资产投资
		劳动生产率	旅游总收入/旅游业从业人数
		创新投入	研发经费R&D投入强度
		科技产出	专利授权数（件）
		人力资本	每万人旅游高等学院在校学生人数
	协调发展	区域协调	区域旅游总收入/地区GDP
		产业协调	旅游收入/第三产业产值
		城乡协调	城镇人口比重
	绿色发展	污染排放	（旅游总收入/GPD）×废水排放总量
		生态本底	自然保护区面积/辖区面积
		环境治理	垃圾处理率（%）
	开放发展	旅游外汇	外汇收入/旅游总收入
		国际开放	入境游客人数/旅游接待总人数
		交通可达性	铁、公路客运量（万人次）
		文化传播	文化艺术演出场次
	共享发展	基础设施完善程度	旅游业固定资产（万元）
		旅游文化资源	博物馆数量（个）
		旅游接待条件	旅行社、饭店、A级以上景区数量（个）
		旅游服务条件	旅游从业人员（人）

表2 数字经济指标体系

Tab. 2 Digital Economy index system

目标层 Goal layer	维度层 Dimension layer	因子层 Factor layer	指标层 Indicator layer
数字经济发展Digital economydevelopment	基础设施	光缆设施	光缆线路长度（公里）
		互联网设施	互联网宽带接入端口数（万个）
		移动互联网普及率	百人中移动电话用户数（户/百人）
		网上移动能力	网上移动支付水平（万元）
	产业发展	基础电信业	电信业务量（万元）
		规模以上工业企业R&D	规模以上工业企业R&D经费支出（万元）
		规模以上工业企业R&D	规模以上工业企业R&D人员折合全时当量（年人）
		技术合同	技术合同成交总额（万元）
		专利申请数	专利申请数（件）
	数字金融	数字金融覆盖度	覆盖广度指数
		金融使用深度	使用深度指数
		金融数字化程度	数字化程度指数

表3 模型设定检验

Tab. 3 Model setup test

检验类型 Test type	假设检验 Hypothesis test	检验方法 Test method	统计量值 Statistical value	结论 Conclusion
非线性检验	$H 0 : γ = 0$ ； $H 1 : γ = 1$	LM	112.30^***	选用PSTR模型
		LMF	23.16^***
		LRT	143.53^***
剩余线性检验	$H 0 : γ = 1$ ； $H 1 : γ = 2$	LM	27.29^***	转换函数最优个数为2
		LMF	3.52^***
		LRT	28.72^***
	$H 0 : γ = 2$ ； $H 1 : γ = 3$	LM	3.30
		LMF	0.38
		LRT	0.92
位置参数个数检验	m=1	AIC	1.77	每个转换函数位置参数最优个数为1
	m=1	BIC	2.10
	m=2	AIC	1.93
	m=2	BIC	2.28

表3 模型设定检验

Tab. 3 Model setup test

检验类型 Test type	假设检验 Hypothesis test	检验方法 Test method	统计量值 Statistical value	结论 Conclusion
非线性检验	$H 0 : γ = 0$ ； $H 1 : γ = 1$	LM	112.30^***	选用PSTR模型
		LMF	23.16^***
		LRT	143.53^***
剩余线性检验	$H 0 : γ = 1$ ； $H 1 : γ = 2$	LM	27.29^***	转换函数最优个数为2
		LMF	3.52^***
		LRT	28.72^***
	$H 0 : γ = 2$ ； $H 1 : γ = 3$	LM	3.30
		LMF	0.38
		LRT	0.92
位置参数个数检验	m=1	AIC	1.77	每个转换函数位置参数最优个数为1
	m=1	BIC	2.10
	m=2	AIC	1.93
	m=2	BIC	2.28

表4 PSTR模型参数估计结果

Tab. 4 PSTR model parameter estimation results

	模型1 Model 1
	线性部分 Linear	非线性部分 Nonlinear
数字经济发展（dig）	1.758^*** (0.17)	-0.788^*** (0.12)	-0.468^** (0.19)
政府效率（govfy）	-1.965^*** (0.295)	3.897^*** (0.85)	-2.382^** (1.09)
科技教育发展水平（scied）	-0.076 (0.14)	2.736^** (1.10)	5.477^* (3.05)
市场化水平（markdex）	1.158^*** (0.24)	-5.714^*** (0.94)	2.007^* (1.70)
外商直接投资（invest）	-0.275^*** (0.08)	0.984^*** (0.19)	-0.768^*** (0.18)
产业结构升级（upgrade）	-0.301 (0.30)	1.586^* (0.87)	-2.038 (1.95)
旅游人力资本（hum）	-0.036 (0.04)	0.791^*** (0.23)	2.557^*** (0.51)
c	18.273
c	39.055
γ	0.177
γ	0.502
N	279

图2 转换函数图像

Fig. 2 Conversion function image

表5 面板门槛模型结果

Tab. 5 Panel threshold model results

模型2 Model 2
参数 Parameter		估计值 Estimated value
门槛效应检验	单一门槛	88.50^***
	双重门槛	64.40^***
	三重门槛	25.58
dig（dig≤22.83）		0.758^*** (0.09)
dig（22.83<dig<42.56）		0.530^*** (0.06)
dig（dig≥42.56）		0.402^*** (0.05)
控制变量		Control
截距		7.355^* (4.09)
第一门槛		22.83 [22.15, 23.19]
第二门槛		42.56 [41.03，44.11]
F		30.83
R²		0.796
N		279

表6 稳健性检验结果

Tab. 6 Robustness test results

	模型3 Model 3			模型4 Model 4			模型5 Model 5
	更换被解释变量			缩尾检验			纳入更多控制变量
	线性部分Linear	非线性部分Nonlinear		线性部分Linear	非线性部分Nonlinear		线性部分Linear	非线性部分Nonlinear
dig	0.591^*** (0.15)	-0.415^*** (0.15)	-0.762^*** (0.10)	1.799^*** (0.15)	-0.407^*** (0.12)	-0.70^*** (0.19)	1.685^*** (0.18)	-0.768^*** (0.13)	-0.510^** (0.21)
c	11.835			15.441			18.404
c	37.597			28.459			34.1744
γ	2.240			0.280			0.177
γ	0.001			725.491			3.433
控制变量	Control			Control			Control
N	279			279			279

表7 解释变量滞后的PSTR模型估计结果

Tab. 7 Estimated PSTR model with lagged explanatory variables results

	模型6 Model 6
	线性部分 Linear	非线性部分 Nonlinear
数字经济发展（dig）	1.795^*** (0.24)	-1.030^*** (0.23)	-0.608^*** (0.19)
政府效率（govfy）	-1.046^** (0.48)	1.336^*** (0.50)	1.336^* (0.59)
科技教育发展水平（scied）	-0.042 (0.13)	2.522^*** (0.28)	8.901^*** (1.27)
市场化水平（markdex）	0.422^** (0.21)	-1.535^*** (0.40)	-5.119^*** (1.00)
外商直接投资（invest）	-0.349^*** (0.10)	0.580^*** (0.12)	-0.709^*** (0.19)
产业结构升级（upgrade）	-0.078 (0.23)	0.269 (0.42)	-0.239 (1.61)
旅游人力资本（hum）	0.015 (0.05)	0.190^* (0.11)	3.389^*** (0.45)
c	8.766
c	28.459
γ	2.762
γ	2.814
N	217

表8 区域异质性分析

Tab. 8 Regional heterogeneity analysis

	模型7 Model 7		模型8 Model 8		模型9 Model 9
	东部地区 Eastern region		中部地区 Central region		西部地区 Western region
	线性部分Linear	非线性部分Nonlinear	线性部分Linear	非线性部分Nonlinear	线性部分Linear	非线性部分Nonlinear
dig	1.011^*** (0.11)	-0.366^*** (0.12)	-1.028 (0.79)	1.089 (0.67)	2.662^*** (0.30)	2.412^** (1.19)
控制变量	Control		Control		Control
c	20.202		6.428		31.166
γ	179.578		0.139		0.105
n	108		72		99

表9 作用机制检验

Tab. 9 Mechanism tests

	模型10 Model 10	模型11 Model 11		模型12 Model 12		模型13 Model 13
	hdp	tfp	hdp	str	hdp	hdp
dig	0.642^*** (0.12)	0.315^*** (0.07)	0.362^*** (0.09)	0.149^*** (0.05)	0.570^*** (0.11)	1.239^*** (0.16)
tfp			0.889^*** (0.18)
str					0.484^*** (0.33)
eco						0.500^*** (0.17)
eco×dig						-0.949^*** (0.17)
控制变量	Control	Control	Control	Control	Control	Control
N	279	279	279	279	279	279

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