Tourism and Hospitality Prospects ›› 2018, Vol. 2 ›› Issue (6): 33-46.DOI: 10.12054/lydk.bisu.87
• 主题论文 • Previous Articles Next Articles
Changyao SONG1(), Ran JIA2, Xinjian LI2
Received:
2018-06-25
Revised:
2018-09-07
Online:
2018-11-30
Published:
2018-12-29
作者简介:
宋昌耀(1991— ),男,河北邢台人,北京大学政府管理学院博士研究生,研究方向:旅游经济与区域经济。E-mail:基金资助:
CLC Number:
Changyao SONG, Ran JIA, Xinjian LI. Transit Visa-free Policy and Inbound Tourism Growth: An Analysis based on PSM-DID Method[J]. Tourism and Hospitality Prospects, 2018, 2(6): 33-46.
宋昌耀, 贾然, 厉新建. 过境免签政策与入境旅游增长——基于PSM-DID方法的分析[J]. 旅游导刊, 2018, 2(6): 33-46.
变量 | 样本量 | 均值 | 标准差 | 最小值 | 最大值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
inbound | 252 | 1.591 | 2.209 | —4.605 | 5.814 |
resource | 252 | 1.634 | 1.279 | —2.303 | 3.114 |
pollution | 252 | 10.671 | 0.771 | 9.030 | 13.768 |
FDI | 252 | 0.957 | 1.905 | —4.605 | 7.200 |
investment | 252 | 6.387 | 1.228 | 3.490 | 9.591 |
GDP | 252 | 6.868 | 7.042 | 4.016 | 9.792 |
Tab.1 Descriptive statistics
变量 | 样本量 | 均值 | 标准差 | 最小值 | 最大值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
inbound | 252 | 1.591 | 2.209 | —4.605 | 5.814 |
resource | 252 | 1.634 | 1.279 | —2.303 | 3.114 |
pollution | 252 | 10.671 | 0.771 | 9.030 | 13.768 |
FDI | 252 | 0.957 | 1.905 | —4.605 | 7.200 |
investment | 252 | 6.387 | 1.228 | 3.490 | 9.591 |
GDP | 252 | 6.868 | 7.042 | 4.016 | 9.792 |
模型(1) | 模型(3) | |
---|---|---|
匹配前 | 匹配后 | |
policy | —0.984*** | —0.059 8 |
(—3.86) | (—0.37) | |
常数项 | 2.153*** | 2.333*** |
(15.41) | (18.86) | |
Log Likelihood | —550.4 | —418.8 |
N | 252 | 252 |
Tab. 2 Common trend hypothesis test
模型(1) | 模型(3) | |
---|---|---|
匹配前 | 匹配后 | |
policy | —0.984*** | —0.059 8 |
(—3.86) | (—0.37) | |
常数项 | 2.153*** | 2.333*** |
(15.41) | (18.86) | |
Log Likelihood | —550.4 | —418.8 |
N | 252 | 252 |
变量 | 系数 | 标准差 | t值 | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|
resource | 0.071 | 0.072 | 0.989 | 0.324 |
pollution | 0.028 | 0.131 | 0.215 | 0.830 |
FDI | 0.643 | 0.092 | 6.964 | 0.000 |
investment | 0.200 | 0.180 | 1.109 | 0.269 |
GDP | —0.969 | 0.164 | —5.927 | 0.000 |
Tab. 3 Regression results of matching[model(2)]
变量 | 系数 | 标准差 | t值 | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|
resource | 0.071 | 0.072 | 0.989 | 0.324 |
pollution | 0.028 | 0.131 | 0.215 | 0.830 |
FDI | 0.643 | 0.092 | 6.964 | 0.000 |
investment | 0.200 | 0.180 | 1.109 | 0.269 |
GDP | —0.969 | 0.164 | —5.927 | 0.000 |
样本 | 拟相关系数 (Pseudo R2) | 似然比检验 (LR chi2) | P值 (P>chi2) | 均值偏差 (MeanBias) | 中位数偏差 (MedBias) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
匹配前 | 0.693 | 238.61 | 0.000 | 123.8 | 114.8 |
匹配后 | 0.13 | 52.03 | 0.000 | 37 | 41.3 |
Tab. 4 The results of before and after the matching
样本 | 拟相关系数 (Pseudo R2) | 似然比检验 (LR chi2) | P值 (P>chi2) | 均值偏差 (MeanBias) | 中位数偏差 (MedBias) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
匹配前 | 0.693 | 238.61 | 0.000 | 123.8 | 114.8 |
匹配后 | 0.13 | 52.03 | 0.000 | 37 | 41.3 |
基期 | 实验期 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
结果变量 | 控制组 | 处理组 | 差分 | 控制组 | 处理组 | 差分 | 双重差分 |
入境旅游人次(匹配后) | 6.776 | 6.305 | —0.471 | 6.699 | 6.907 | 0.208 | 0.679 |
标准误差 | 1.4 | 1.275 | 0.277 | 1.39 | 1.217 | 0.32 | 0.28 |
t值 | 4.84 | 6.41 | —1.7 | 6.72 | 6.79 | 1.65 | 2.43 |
P值 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.090* | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.517 | 0.016** |
Tab. 5 Average treatment effect test based on DID method[results of model(4)]
基期 | 实验期 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
结果变量 | 控制组 | 处理组 | 差分 | 控制组 | 处理组 | 差分 | 双重差分 |
入境旅游人次(匹配后) | 6.776 | 6.305 | —0.471 | 6.699 | 6.907 | 0.208 | 0.679 |
标准误差 | 1.4 | 1.275 | 0.277 | 1.39 | 1.217 | 0.32 | 0.28 |
t值 | 4.84 | 6.41 | —1.7 | 6.72 | 6.79 | 1.65 | 2.43 |
P值 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.090* | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.517 | 0.016** |
模型(5) | 模型(6) | 模型(7) | |
---|---|---|---|
OLS | FE | RE | |
交叉项系数 | |||
policy×time2011 | —0.181 | 0.254 | —0.016 1 |
(—0.59) | (0.89) | (—0.06) | |
policy×time2012 | —0.115 | 0.300 | —0.000 398 |
(—0.34) | (1.00) | (—0.00) | |
policy×time2013 | 0.275 | 0.643** | 0.315 |
(0.73) | (2.00) | (1.21) | |
policy×time2014 | 0.577** | 0.917*** | 0.563** |
(1.99) | (2.65) | (2.07) | |
policy×time2015 | 0.523 | 0.847** | 0.437 |
(1.61) | (2.04) | (1.38) | |
policy×time2016 | 0.283 | 0.580 | 0.137 |
(0.65) | (1.14) | (0.34) | |
控制变量系数 | |||
resource | 0.053 0 | —0.278 | 0.069 2 |
(0.77) | (—0.53) | (0.60) | |
pollution | 0.048 6 | —0.109 | —0.066 5 |
‘ | (0.37) | (—0.54) | (—0.37) |
FDI | 0.613*** | 0.295*** | 0.416*** |
(6.66) | (3.11) | (4.97) | |
investment | 0.302* | 0.782** | 0.342* |
(1.95) | (2.28) | (1.84) | |
GDP | —0.947*** | —1.691*** | —0.735*** |
(—5.72) | (—2.73) | (—3.33) | |
常数项 | 5.599*** | 10.03*** | 5.270*** |
(4.84) | (3.14) | (2.80) | |
模型(5) | 模型(6) | 模型(7) | |
OLS | FE | RE | |
Log Likelihood | —379.7 | —310.1 | |
N | 252 | 252 | 252 |
Tab. 6 Time effect test for visa-free policy
模型(5) | 模型(6) | 模型(7) | |
---|---|---|---|
OLS | FE | RE | |
交叉项系数 | |||
policy×time2011 | —0.181 | 0.254 | —0.016 1 |
(—0.59) | (0.89) | (—0.06) | |
policy×time2012 | —0.115 | 0.300 | —0.000 398 |
(—0.34) | (1.00) | (—0.00) | |
policy×time2013 | 0.275 | 0.643** | 0.315 |
(0.73) | (2.00) | (1.21) | |
policy×time2014 | 0.577** | 0.917*** | 0.563** |
(1.99) | (2.65) | (2.07) | |
policy×time2015 | 0.523 | 0.847** | 0.437 |
(1.61) | (2.04) | (1.38) | |
policy×time2016 | 0.283 | 0.580 | 0.137 |
(0.65) | (1.14) | (0.34) | |
控制变量系数 | |||
resource | 0.053 0 | —0.278 | 0.069 2 |
(0.77) | (—0.53) | (0.60) | |
pollution | 0.048 6 | —0.109 | —0.066 5 |
‘ | (0.37) | (—0.54) | (—0.37) |
FDI | 0.613*** | 0.295*** | 0.416*** |
(6.66) | (3.11) | (4.97) | |
investment | 0.302* | 0.782** | 0.342* |
(1.95) | (2.28) | (1.84) | |
GDP | —0.947*** | —1.691*** | —0.735*** |
(—5.72) | (—2.73) | (—3.33) | |
常数项 | 5.599*** | 10.03*** | 5.270*** |
(4.84) | (3.14) | (2.80) | |
模型(5) | 模型(6) | 模型(7) | |
OLS | FE | RE | |
Log Likelihood | —379.7 | —310.1 | |
N | 252 | 252 | 252 |
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