反事实思维视角下限时促销对旅游直播消费者即时购买意愿的影响机制研究

doi:10.12054/lydk.bisu.237

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

限时促销作为一种条件促销模式，已成为提升旅游直播营销效果的重要手段，但已有研究较少关注旅游直播领域的限时促销。为弥补现有研究不足，探究旅游直播中限时促销对消费者即时购买决策的影响机制，本文以目标导向行为理论为基础，从反事实思维视角，通过两项情景实验对此进行了剖析，研究发现：（1）旅游直播限时促销能够直接激发消费者的即时购买意愿，其中限时折扣形式比限时赠品效果更好；（2）当消费者具有较强的上行反事实思维时，旅游直播限时促销能够诱发消费者的预期作为后悔，从而降低即时购买意愿；（3）当消费者具有较强的下行反事实思维时，旅游直播限时促销能够诱发消费者的预期不作为后悔，从而提升即时购买意愿。研究结果揭示了旅游直播限时促销所具有的双面性，丰富了旅游直播营销的相关研究，可为旅游企业合理采取网络促销措施提供启示。

关键词: 旅游直播; 限时促销; 反事实思维; 预期后悔; 即时购买意愿

Abstract:

Time-limited promotion—as a conditional promotion model—has become an important means to improve the marketing effect of tourism live streaming. However, few studies have focused on the time-limited promotion of tourism live streaming. To compensate for the lack of relevant research and explore the influence mechanism of time-limited promotion on consumers’ real-time purchase decisions in tourism live streaming, this study analyzes the subject matter through two scenario experiments based on goal-oriented behavior theory and from the perspective of counterfactual thinking. The results indicate the following; First, the time-limited promotion of live streaming can directly stimulate consumers’ intention to purchase, and the time-limited discount is a more effective marketing means than the time-limited giveaway. Second, when consumers engage in strong upward counterfactual thinking, the time-limited promotion of tourism live streaming can induce their anticipated regrets, thereby reducing their intention of immediate purchase. Third, when consumers engage in strong downward counterfactual thinking, the time-limited promotion of tourism live streaming can induce their regret of anticipated inaction, thus enhancing their intention of immediate purchase. This study’s findings reveal the duality of the time-limited promotion of tourism live streaming, enrich the relevant research on marketing through tourism live streaming, and enlighten tourism enterprises to adopt online promotion measures rationally.

Keywords: tourism live streaming; time-limited promotion; counterfactual thinking; anticipated regret; immediate purchase intention

中图分类号:

王雨晨. 反事实思维视角下限时促销对旅游直播消费者即时购买意愿的影响机制研究[J]. 旅游导刊, 2024, 8(1): 60-81.

WANG Yuchen. Research on the Mechanism of Time-Limited Promotion on Consumers’ Intention to Purchase in Tourism Livestreaming Marketing from the Perspective of Counterfactual Thinking[J]. Tourism and Hospitality Prospects, 2024, 8(1): 60-81.

图/表 6

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	限时折扣 Time-limited discount	限时赠品 Time-limited giveaway
实验材料 Experimental material	今天，南山竹海景区酒店民宿标间限时秒杀，原价299元，现价立减100元，为199元，下播后恢复原价，抢到就是赚到，错过今天可能要等很长一段时间再有了！	今天，南山竹海景区酒店民宿标间限时福利，现价299元，额外赠送汉服体验（价值50元）以及双人份自助早餐与下午茶（价值50元），抢到就是赚到，错过今天可能要等很长一段时间再有了！
引导语 Introductory clause	假设您最近想去南山竹海游玩，正好刷到一个旅游直播间在推荐相配套的酒店民宿产品，且开展了限时促销活动，您点进去想观察一下再决定是否下单。

	限时折扣 Time-limited discount	限时赠品 Time-limited giveaway
实验材料 Experimental material	今天，南山竹海景区酒店民宿标间限时秒杀，原价299元，现价立减100元，为199元，下播后恢复原价，抢到就是赚到，错过今天可能要等很长一段时间再有了！	今天，南山竹海景区酒店民宿标间限时福利，现价299元，额外赠送汉服体验（价值50元）以及双人份自助早餐与下午茶（价值50元），抢到就是赚到，错过今天可能要等很长一段时间再有了！
引导语 Introductory clause	假设您最近想去南山竹海游玩，正好刷到一个旅游直播间在推荐相配套的酒店民宿产品，且开展了限时促销活动，您点进去想观察一下再决定是否下单。

变量 Variable	题项 Item	标准化因子载荷 SFL	平均方差萃取量 AVE	组合信度 CR
上行反事实思维（UCT）	我会因为想到事情本可以更好而难过	0.809	0.782	0.935
	我会思考事情的发展走向本来可以更好	0.902
	我时常会思考，希望更好的事情会发生	0.844
	虽然糟糕的情况不是任何人的错，但我在思考事情如何变得更好	0.973
下行反事实思维（DCT）	我在想事情可能会变得有多糟糕	0.909	0.872	0.965
	我会因为想到事情可能会变得更糟糕而感到庆幸	0.928
	当我想到事情本可以变得多么糟糕时，对此我会表示认同	0.928
	虽然发生的事情是消极的，但我认为会变得更糟	0.970
预期作为后悔（AAR）	如果现在购买该旅游产品，未来发现此直播间又降价了，我会对此感到后悔	0.841	0.741	0.895
	如果现在购买该旅游产品，未来发现在其他平台上有更优惠的价格，我会对此感到后悔	0.911
	如果现在购买该旅游产品，未来发现更优惠的组合型旅游产品，我会对此感到后悔	0.828
预期不作为后悔（AIR）	如果现在不购买该旅游产品，未来发现在此直播间涨价了，我会对此感到后悔	0.730	0.634	0.838
	如果现在不购买该旅游产品，未来发现其短期内不再上架，我会对此感到后悔	0.870
	如果现在不购买该旅游产品，未来发现其他平台的价格与福利并没有此直播间好，我会对此感到后悔	0.782
即时购买意愿（IPI）	我想在旅游直播限时促销时段内即刻下单购买促销的旅游产品	0.779	0.684	0.866
	出于优惠力度，我想立即购买旅游直播限时促销的旅游产品	0.875
	我想在旅游直播间即刻购买计划外的限时促销的旅游产品	0.824

变量 Variable	题项 Item	标准化因子载荷 SFL	平均方差萃取量 AVE	组合信度 CR
上行反事实思维（UCT）	我会因为想到事情本可以更好而难过	0.809	0.782	0.935
	我会思考事情的发展走向本来可以更好	0.902
	我时常会思考，希望更好的事情会发生	0.844
	虽然糟糕的情况不是任何人的错，但我在思考事情如何变得更好	0.973
下行反事实思维（DCT）	我在想事情可能会变得有多糟糕	0.909	0.872	0.965
	我会因为想到事情可能会变得更糟糕而感到庆幸	0.928
	当我想到事情本可以变得多么糟糕时，对此我会表示认同	0.928
	虽然发生的事情是消极的，但我认为会变得更糟	0.970
预期作为后悔（AAR）	如果现在购买该旅游产品，未来发现此直播间又降价了，我会对此感到后悔	0.841	0.741	0.895
	如果现在购买该旅游产品，未来发现在其他平台上有更优惠的价格，我会对此感到后悔	0.911
	如果现在购买该旅游产品，未来发现更优惠的组合型旅游产品，我会对此感到后悔	0.828
预期不作为后悔（AIR）	如果现在不购买该旅游产品，未来发现在此直播间涨价了，我会对此感到后悔	0.730	0.634	0.838
	如果现在不购买该旅游产品，未来发现其短期内不再上架，我会对此感到后悔	0.870
	如果现在不购买该旅游产品，未来发现其他平台的价格与福利并没有此直播间好，我会对此感到后悔	0.782
即时购买意愿（IPI）	我想在旅游直播限时促销时段内即刻下单购买促销的旅游产品	0.779	0.684	0.866
	出于优惠力度，我想立即购买旅游直播限时促销的旅游产品	0.875
	我想在旅游直播间即刻购买计划外的限时促销的旅游产品	0.824

变量 Variable	上行反事实思维（UCT）	下行反事实思维（DCT）	预期作为后悔（AAR）	预期不作为后悔（AIR）	即时购买意愿（IPI）
上行反事实思维（UCT）	0.884
下行反事实思维（DCT）	-0.226^**	0.934
预期作为后悔（AAR）	0.124	-0.020	0.861
预期不作为后悔（AIR）	-0.155^*	-0.028	0.096	0.796
即时购买意愿（IPI）	0.020	-0.142^*	-0.174^**	0.194^**	0.827