周休假的旅游消费效应研究

doi:10.12054/lydk.bisu.117

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

自1995年起在全国实行周末双休日制度后,国人的休假时间逐渐增加,假日类型也日益丰富。本文构建了假日与旅游消费的理论模型,利用原国家旅游局“2016年中国国民旅游休闲调查”数据,证明了不同假日类型对旅游消费的作用存在显著不同,且周休假拉动旅游消费的关键在于能否提升出游意愿和旅游边际消费倾向。研究发现：基于周末游的周休假对国内旅游消费的促进效应最大,周休假的单位时间每提高10%,有望提升2.3%的国内旅游消费,且对交通、住宿、娱乐、餐饮消费有显著正向影响,尤其对住宿消费的影响效应要高于其他假日。其他假日中,带薪休假的国内旅游消费促进效应也较为明显,但“十一”黄金周对旅游消费的促进作用相对较弱,公共假日则不显著。对此,本文通过我国假日经济数据验证了周休假的旅游消费促进效应与周末游出游意愿强烈、市场需求巨大密切相关。建议国家在制定未来的假日改革政策时不仅要关注假日数量的调整,更要关注假日结构的优化;可将周休假与带薪休假相结合,形成富有效率、灵活的假期安排,发挥周休假的旅游消费作用。

关键词: 假日结构; 周休假; 旅游消费; 消费效应

Abstract:

Since the implement of Weekend System in 1995, people’s leisure time has gradually increased and holiday types have become richer. This paper establishes a theoretical model on holiday and tourism consumption to prove that different types of holidays have significantly varied effects on tourism expenditure, and whether they can effectively affect tourism consumption lies in if this type of holiday can enhance the travel willingness and tourism marginal propensity to consume. Based on 2016 Chinese Tourism and Leisure Survey data from former China National Tourism Administration, this paper finds that the domestic tourism consumption effect of Week Break is the most significant. An 10% increase in holiday time on Week Break is expected to promote domestic tourism consumption by 2.3%, and it will have a significant positive impact on tourism consumption for transportation, accommodation, entertainment, food and beverage, especially for accommodation. Besides, Paid Holiday has more obvious and stronger effect on the domestic tourism consumption, which provides great support for the implement of Paid Holiday System. However, National Day Golden Week makes less contribution to domestic tourism consumption and Public Holiday shows little significance. This paper verifies that the tourism consumption promotion effect of Week Break is closely related to the strong willingness of weekend trips and huge market demand through China's holiday economic data. Therefore, this paper suggests that in the future design of the holiday reform policy, we ought to not only pay attention to which type of holidays should be increased or decreased, but also focus on optimizing the combination efficiency within the existing holidays structure. It is advisable to encourage individuals and businesses to combine Week Break and Paid Holiday to form an efficient and flexible holiday, maximizing the tourism consumption effect of Week Break.

Keywords: holiday structure; week break; tourism expenditure; consumption effect

中图分类号:

吴新芳, 魏翔. 周休假的旅游消费效应研究[J]. 旅游导刊, 2019, 3(5): 66-83.

Xinfang WU, Xiang WEI. The Study on the Tourism Consumption Effect of Week Break[J]. Tourism and Hospitality Prospects, 2019, 3(5): 66-83.

图/表 7

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区域	人口规模（亿人）	人口规模占比（%）	调查城市数量
华东	3.9	28.7	4
华南	1.7	12.5	2
华中	2.1	15.4	2
华北	1.8	13.2	1
西南	1.9	14.0	2
东北	1.3	9.6	3
西北	0.9	6.6	2
合计	13.6	100	16

区域	人口规模（亿人）	人口规模占比（%）	调查城市数量
华东	3.9	28.7	4
华南	1.7	12.5	2
华中	2.1	15.4	2
华北	1.8	13.2	1
西南	1.9	14.0	2
东北	1.3	9.6	3
西北	0.9	6.6	2
合计	13.6	100	16

城市级别	调查城市	所属区域	人均GDP（元）	GDP比例（%）	样本配额
一线城市	北京	华北	159 973	10.7%	870
	上海	华东	163 812	11.0%	895
	广州	华南	198 325	13.2%	1 080
二线城市	成都	西南	83 064	5.5%	451
	武汉	华中	121 715	8.1%	662
	沈阳	东北	97 136	6.5%	526
	西安	西北	67 370	4.5%	380
	南京	华东	135 976	9.1%	738
三线城市	吉林	东北	55 636	3.7%	300
	珠海	华南	169 439	11.3%	919
	兰州	西北	53 401	3.6%	293
	扬州	华东	80 163	5.4%	436
四线城市	齐齐哈尔	东北	21 861	1.5%	121
	连云港	华东	37 339	2.5%	202
	开封	华中	26 942	1.8%	146
	遵义	西南	23 817	1.6%	130
样本合计					8 149

城市级别	调查城市	所属区域	人均GDP（元）	GDP比例（%）	样本配额
一线城市	北京	华北	159 973	10.7%	870
	上海	华东	163 812	11.0%	895
	广州	华南	198 325	13.2%	1 080
二线城市	成都	西南	83 064	5.5%	451
	武汉	华中	121 715	8.1%	662
	沈阳	东北	97 136	6.5%	526
	西安	西北	67 370	4.5%	380
	南京	华东	135 976	9.1%	738
三线城市	吉林	东北	55 636	3.7%	300
	珠海	华南	169 439	11.3%	919
	兰州	西北	53 401	3.6%	293
	扬州	华东	80 163	5.4%	436
四线城市	齐齐哈尔	东北	21 861	1.5%	121
	连云港	华东	37 339	2.5%	202
	开封	华中	26 942	1.8%	146
	遵义	西南	23 817	1.6%	130
样本合计					8 149

	均值	标准差	中值	范围
旅游消费（因变量）
国内旅游总消费	7 766.3	6 363.4	6 100	265~84 000
交通	1 610.0	1 613.9	1 000	0~20 500
住宿	1 463.7	1 358.9	1 000	0~20 000
餐饮	1 297.7	1 685.7	1 000	0~61 200
门票	796.5	764.8	550	0~15 000
购物	1 886.0	2 725.9	1 000	0~70 000
娱乐	713.4	1 146.1	400	0~20 000
假日结构（核心自变量）
带薪休假	3.0	1.0	3	1~5
公共假日	19.5	4.2	22	0~22
“十一”黄金周	6.2	1.6	7	0~7
周休假	1.8	0.4	2	0.5~3