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旅游导刊  2019, Vol. 3 Issue (1): 43-64    DOI: 10.12054/lydk.bisu.88
研究论文     
旅游者在线预订行为是计划行为吗?——旅游者行为惯性的影响及风险感知的两阶段调节效应研究
张江驰()
华侨大学旅游学院 福建泉州 362021
Is E-Booking a Planned Behavior? A Study on the Effects of Tourists’ Habits and the Two-stage Moderating Effects of Risk Perception
Jiangchi ZHANG
College of Tourism, Huaqiao University, Quanzhou 362021, China
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摘要:

随着Web2.0技术的成熟与散客化浪潮的兴起,在线旅游预订日渐受到游客的青睐。本研究从旅游者个体视角出发,基于计划行为理论阐述了旅游者在线预订行为的形成机制,并进一步探讨游客个体预订行为惯性及风险感知的干预影响。本研究对泉州、厦门、上海等地382名游客开展问卷调查,分析表明:计划行为理论对游客在线预订行为有较好的解释力度;游客预订行为惯性对预订行为具有显著的正向影响;游客风险感知在预订意向形成、预订行为发生两个阶段均具有显著的负向调节作用;风险感知在预订意向转化成真实预订行为过程中的抑制作用更大。本研究还从旅游产品质量管理、游客行为习惯引导、预订风险管理等方面提出对旅游电商平台管理的启示。

关键词: 旅游在线预订计划行为理论风险感知行为惯性    
Abstract:

With the maturity of Web2.0 technology and the rise of individual customers, online travel booking is increasingly favored by tourists. From the personal perspective of tourists, this study constructs a conceptual model to explore the formation mechanism of online booking behavior of tourists. The conceptual model proposed in this study mainly consists of variables such as attitude, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, booking behavioral habits, risk perception, booking intention, and booking behavior. The study conducted a questionnaire survey on four destinations in Quanzhou, Xiamen and Shanghai, and obtained 382 questionnaires. Through the data analysis software such as AMOS and SPSS, the multi-level test of the direct, mediating and regulating effects of the model was carried out. The results show that: (1) Behavioral attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control have a strong direct influence on the booking intention. Also, The booking intention is an important predictor of the booking behavior. The data results indicate that the planned behavior theory has a good explanation for the online booking behavior of tourists; (2) The tourist booking habits has a significant positive impact on the booking behavior, and can also influence the booking behavior through the intermediary effect of the booking intention; (3) Tourist risk perception has a significant negative adjustment effect on the two stages of booking behavior. And risk perception has a greater inhibitory effect on the conversion of booking intentions into real booking behavior. This study also proposes a tourism e-commerce platform marketing strategy system from the aspects of tourism product quality management, guidance of tourists' behavior habits, and reservation risk management. However, the occurrence of online booking behavior of tourists also has irrational behavior characteristics such as impulsive purchase and secular purchase. More theoretical discussions and empirical tests are needed in the future.

Key words: e-booking    theory of planned behavior    risk perception    behavioral habit
收稿日期: 2018-07-16 出版日期: 2019-03-04
PACS:  F59  
基金资助: 本研究受华侨大学研究生科研创新培育项目(项目编号:17013121020)资助
作者简介:

[作者简介] 张江驰(1995— ),男,福建泉州人,华侨大学旅游学院硕士研究生,研究方向:旅游安全和旅游服务等。E-mail:1050517815@qq.com

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引用本文:

张江驰. 旅游者在线预订行为是计划行为吗?——旅游者行为惯性的影响及风险感知的两阶段调节效应研究[J]. 旅游导刊, 2019, 3(1): 43-64.

Jiangchi ZHANG. Is E-Booking a Planned Behavior? A Study on the Effects of Tourists’ Habits and the Two-stage Moderating Effects of Risk Perception. Tourism and Hospitality Prospects, 2019, 3(1): 43-64.

链接本文:

https://lydk.bisu.edu.cn/CN/10.12054/lydk.bisu.88        https://lydk.bisu.edu.cn/CN/Y2019/V3/I1/43

图1  计划行为理论的结构模型
图2  基于游客风险感知、预订行为惯性的计划行为理论模型
人口统计变量 样本结构(N=315) 人口统计变量 样本结构(N=315)
类别 频数 比率 类别 频数 比率
性别 119 37.8% 职业 企业职员 63 20.0%
196 62.2% 政府公务人员 27 8.5%
婚姻状况 已婚 113 35.9% 教育科研工作者 33 10.5%
未婚 198 62.9% 个体经营者 32 10.2%
离异 2 0.6% 在校学生 76 24.1%
丧偶 2 0.6% 专业技术人员 29 9.2%
年龄 00后 9 2.9% 自由职业者 27 8.6%
90后 180 57.1% 离退休人员 11 3.5%
80后 71 22.5% 军人 7 2.2%
70后 49 15.6% 其他 10 3.2%
60后 4 1.3% 出游频率 一个月一次以上 29 9.2%
50后 2 0.6% 两到三个月一次 144 45.7%
学历 初中及以下 14 4.5% 半年左右一次 108 34.3%
高中/中专 54 17.1% 一年一次 18 5.7%
专科 104 33.0% 极少出游 16 5.1%
本科 102 32.4% 最近一次旅游的在线预订次数(行为
惯性)
硕士及以上 41 13.0% ≤1次 18 5.7%
月收入 2500元及以下 56 17.8% 2~3次 156 49.6%
2501~5000元 107 34.0% 4~5次 101 32.1%
5001~10000元 116 36.8% 6~7次 20 6.3%
10001~20000元 25 7.9% >7次 20 6.3%
20001元及以上 11 3.5%
表1  有效样本数据的人口统计特征概况
潜变
观测变量 描述性统计 验证性因子分析
均值 Cronbach’s
α系数
因子载荷 T值 平均变异抽取
组合信度
态度 出游通过网络在线旅游预订是非常有趣的 5.18 0.809 0.728 13.754 0.588 0.810
出游通过网络在线旅游预订是非常放松的 5.29 0.722 13.609
出游通过网络在线旅游预订是非常愉快的 5.31 0.845 16.637
主观规范 我熟悉的人群基本都使用在线旅游预订 5.44 0.800 0.644 11.800 0.576 0.801
我的家人会支持我使用在线旅游预订 5.57 0.765 14.627
我的同事认为我应该使用在线旅游预订 5.79 0.853 16.822
感知行为控制 我有充足的时间、设备和机会使用在线预订 5.70 0.762 0.717 13.339 0.516 0.762
在线旅游预订对我来说没有任何操作难度 5.75 0.665 12.120
我可以通过在线平台预订到我需要的产品 5.87 0.770 14.585
预订意向 我有使用在线旅游预订的打算 5.79 0.818 0.812 15.866 0.610 0.824
我会尽可能使用在线旅游预订 5.60 0.755 14.221
我有使用在线旅游预订的倾向 5.74 0.774 15.326
风险感知 通过在线旅游预订会有较高的损失风险 3.59 0.757 0.822 12.985 0.593 0.806
涉及在线旅游预订有较大的风险问题 3.65 0.814 13.214
在线旅游预订缺乏真实体验而难以买到合适的产品 3.87 0.614 9.383
预订行为 我经常通过在线预订平台购买门票 5.51 0.798 0.912 11.536 0.741 0.895
我出游时会优先通过在线平台预订产品 5.48 0.877 16.272
我不会优先使用在线平台购买产品 4.40 0.788 14.489
表2  描述性统计与验证性因子分析
变量 M SD 态度 主观
规范
感知行
为控制
预订
意向
预订
行为
风险
感知
行为
惯性
态度 5.261 1.031 (0.767)
主观规范 5.597 1.133 0.215** (0.759)
感知行为
控制
5.776 0.943 0.458** 0.430** (0.719)
预订意向 5.708 1.014 0.501** 0.452** 0.569** (0.781)
预订行为 5.365 1.127 0.441** 0.282** 0.482** 0.608** (0.861)
风险感知 3.365 1.191 —0.220** —0.371** —0.279** —0.265** —0.195** (0.770)
行为惯性 2.58 0.932 0.202** 0.178** 0.161** 0.277** 0.309** —0.065 (1)
表3  各变量均值(M)、标准差(SD)、相关系数和AVE平方根
路径 路径系数(β S.E. Bias-corrected 95% CI p 模型拟合指数
下限 上限
预订态度→预订意向 0.259 0.063 0.073 0.433 0.008
主观规范→预订意向 0.223 0.070 0.056 0.432 0.010 Χ2/df=1.878
感知行为控制→预订意向 0.503 0.111 0.215 0.853 0.001 RMSEA=0.053
感知行为控制→预订行为 0.252 0.132 -0.100 0.585 0.134 SRMR=0.063
预订意向→预订行为 0.617 0.123 0.337 0.974 0.001 GFI=0.937
行为惯性→预订意向 0.134 0.045 0.036 0.229 0.010 AGFI=0.907
行为惯性→预订行为 0.165 0.055 0.041 0.276 0.011 PGFI=0.634
行为惯性对预订行为的总效应 0.248 0.056 0.143 0.360 0.001 NFI=0.922
TLI=0.950
行为惯性对预订行为的直接效应 0.165 0.064 0.049 0.285 0.007
行为惯性对预订行为的间接效应 0.083 0.049 0.020 0.193 0.006 CFI=0.962
(行为惯性→预订意向→预订行为)
表4  基于计划行为理论、行为惯性的游客在线预订行为路径分析
图3  游客风险感知对在线预订的调节效应
图4  游客风险感知对预订意向、预订行为的影响
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