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旅游导刊  2018, Vol. 2 Issue (6): 33-46    DOI: 10.12054/lydk.bisu.87
    
过境免签政策与入境旅游增长——基于PSM-DID方法的分析
宋昌耀1(), 贾然2, 厉新建2
1. 北京大学政府管理学院 北京 100871
2. 北京第二外国语学院旅游管理学院 北京 100024
Transit Visa-free Policy and Inbound Tourism Growth: An Analysis based on PSM-DID Method
Changyao SONG1(), Ran JIA2, Xinjian LI2
1. School of Government, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
2. School of Tourism Management, Beijing International Studies University, Beijing 100024, China
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摘要:

签证政策对入境旅游增长的推动作用不言而喻。过境免签政策作为一项在国际上行之有效的积极签证政策,亦成为我国促进入境旅游增长的方法之一。本文以京津冀地区为例,基于2008年至2016年的面板数据,创新性地采用倾向得分匹配—双重差分方法(PSM-DID)对过境免签政策的入境旅游增长效应进行验证。结果显示,过境免签政策显著地促进了入境旅游的发展,且此项政策的促进效应当即有效;但是随着时间的推移,碍于该项政策的缺陷,过境免签政策的有效性有所下降。此外,本文采用安慰剂检验后回归结果依然稳健。本文对于研究签证政策的有效性、过境免签政策实施的改进以及旅游研究领域政策评价研究方法的完善都具有参考价值。

关键词: 过境免签入境旅游双重差分倾向得分匹配京津冀地区    
Abstract:

Researchers have been focusing on the tourism policies due to the varied policies implemented by the government significantly affecting the development of tourism industry. In particular, visa policies, as the fundamental institutional arrangements of international tourism flows, are attracting increasing attention in the study. Visa restriction and visa liberalization are the important instruments for controlling the movement of people. As a result, visa policy becomes a guarantee of national and economic security while it will also lead to economic loss from refusing potential trade, investment and tourists. Regardless of the reasons for visa policies, the positive impact of visa liberalization and the negative impact of visa restrictions on tourism have become the consensus of most studies. However, transit visa-free policy, as an effective and active visa policy internationally, has attracted few attention. In this paper, based on the panel data from 2008 to 2016 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China, the combination of matching method and difference-in-difference (DID) method was innovatively used to verify the growth effect of transit visa-free policy on inbound tourism. The results showed that the policy significantly promoted the development of inbound tourism, and its promotion functioned immediately. However, due to the flaws of the policy, the effectiveness became weakened gradually. In addition, the regression results were still robust after the Placebo test. This paper is referable for the validity of visa policy, the implementation of visa-free policy and the improvement of research methods for policy evaluation in tourism research.

Key words: transit visa-free policy    inbound tourism    PSM    DID    Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
收稿日期: 2018-06-25 出版日期: 2018-12-29
PACS:  F59  
基金资助: 本文受北京社会科学基金重点项目(项目编号:18JDGLA011)和国家社会科学基金面上项目(项目编号:16BJY139)联合资助
作者简介:

[作者简介] 宋昌耀(1991— ),男,河北邢台人,北京大学政府管理学院博士研究生,研究方向:旅游经济与区域经济。E-mail:songchangyao@sina.com; 贾 然(1993— ),女,北京人,北京第二外国语学院旅游管理学院硕士研究生,研究方向:旅游经济与休闲经济。
厉新建(1973— ),男,浙江东阳人,博士,北京第二外国语学院教授,研究方向:旅游经济发展战略、旅游企业跨国(境)经营等。通讯作者。

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引用本文:

宋昌耀, 贾然, 厉新建. 过境免签政策与入境旅游增长——基于PSM-DID方法的分析[J]. 旅游导刊, 2018, 2(6): 33-46.

Changyao SONG, Ran JIA, Xinjian LI. Transit Visa-free Policy and Inbound Tourism Growth: An Analysis based on PSM-DID Method. Tourism and Hospitality Prospects, 2018, 2(6): 33-46.

链接本文:

https://lydk.bisu.edu.cn/CN/10.12054/lydk.bisu.87        https://lydk.bisu.edu.cn/CN/Y2018/V2/I6/33

变量 样本量 均值 标准差 最小值 最大值
inbound 252 1.591 2.209 —4.605 5.814
resource 252 1.634 1.279 —2.303 3.114
pollution 252 10.671 0.771 9.030 13.768
FDI 252 0.957 1.905 —4.605 7.200
investment 252 6.387 1.228 3.490 9.591
GDP 252 6.868 7.042 4.016 9.792
表1  描述性统计结果
模型(1) 模型(3)
匹配前 匹配后
policy —0.984*** —0.059 8
(—3.86) (—0.37)
常数项 2.153*** 2.333***
(15.41) (18.86)
Log Likelihood —550.4 —418.8
N 252 252
表2  共同趋势检验
变量 系数 标准差 t P
resource 0.071 0.072 0.989 0.324
pollution 0.028 0.131 0.215 0.830
FDI 0.643 0.092 6.964 0.000
investment 0.200 0.180 1.109 0.269
GDP —0.969 0.164 —5.927 0.000
表3  匹配回归结果[模型(2)]
样本 拟相关系数
(Pseudo R2
似然比检验
(LR chi2)
P
P>chi2)
均值偏差
(MeanBias)
中位数偏差
(MedBias)
匹配前 0.693 238.61 0.000 123.8 114.8
匹配后 0.13 52.03 0.000 37 41.3
表4  匹配前后结果比较
基期 实验期
结果变量 控制组 处理组 差分 控制组 处理组 差分 双重差分
入境旅游人次(匹配后) 6.776 6.305 —0.471 6.699 6.907 0.208 0.679
标准误差 1.4 1.275 0.277 1.39 1.217 0.32 0.28
t 4.84 6.41 —1.7 6.72 6.79 1.65 2.43
P 0.000 0.000 0.090* 0.000 0.000 0.517 0.016**
表5  基于双重差分法的平均处理效应检验[模型(4)结果]
模型(5) 模型(6) 模型(7)
OLS FE RE
交叉项系数
policy×time2011 —0.181 0.254 —0.016 1
(—0.59) (0.89) (—0.06)
policy×time2012 —0.115 0.300 —0.000 398
(—0.34) (1.00) (—0.00)
policy×time2013 0.275 0.643** 0.315
(0.73) (2.00) (1.21)
policy×time2014 0.577** 0.917*** 0.563**
(1.99) (2.65) (2.07)
policy×time2015 0.523 0.847** 0.437
(1.61) (2.04) (1.38)
policy×time2016 0.283 0.580 0.137
(0.65) (1.14) (0.34)
控制变量系数
resource 0.053 0 —0.278 0.069 2
(0.77) (—0.53) (0.60)
pollution 0.048 6 —0.109 —0.066 5
(0.37) (—0.54) (—0.37)
FDI 0.613*** 0.295*** 0.416***
(6.66) (3.11) (4.97)
investment 0.302* 0.782** 0.342*
(1.95) (2.28) (1.84)
GDP —0.947*** —1.691*** —0.735***
(—5.72) (—2.73) (—3.33)
常数项 5.599*** 10.03*** 5.270***
(4.84) (3.14) (2.80)
模型(5) 模型(6) 模型(7)
OLS FE RE
Log Likelihood —379.7 —310.1
N 252 252 252
表6  过境免签政策的时间效应检验
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